Indian Monsoon progress – 22 July

Following our note from last week, we are reporting that Monsoon activity through 22 July did not materialize to deliver much needed rains to many of India’s moisture deficient growing regions.  Seasonal totals to date are still showing significant hydrologic deficits (see updated IMD map below) across the country, increasing the risk for potential impacts to commercially important growing areas.  Initial concerns as of mid-to-late July are focused around India’s sugarcane and rice growing belts, along with concentrated dairy production regions.  The risk to reservoirs, many of which are currently operating well below capacity, has also heightened in recent weeks.  Conditions may change for the better in the coming weeks, but we advise agricultural and commercial interests that are connected to the Indian agroeconomy to at least begin to prepare for price and supply volatility.  With the late onset this campaign, some crops are already facing a potentially yield-limiting pattern that will be difficult to reverse.

Atlas Research Innovations will continue to provide updates throughout the duration of the 2019 Monsoon.

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